Prediction Research Manager

Location: New York City; in-person, five days a week in the office. Candidates must be located in the New York metropolitan area or be open to relocation within the United States.

Salary: $280,000–$425,000 annually, plus equity.

Company

hirify.global builds simulations of human behavior using populations of AI agents to help companies and institutions test consequential decisions before implementation.

What you will do

• Lead and develop a team of Prediction Researchers and research engineers while remaining directly involved in research.
• Set and manage a focused portfolio covering aggregate prediction, behavioral forecasting, calibration, drift, subgroup decomposition, and agentic prediction systems.
• Turn ambiguous prediction problems into falsifiable hypotheses, strong baselines, reliable datasets, decisive experiments, and stopping criteria.
• Build predictive systems using structured data, statistical and machine-learning models, language models, retrieval, tools, and inference-time reasoning.
• Establish standards for calibration, temporal validity, prospective testing, leakage prevention, subgroup performance, and robustness under condition shift.
• Transfer validated methods into production through clear contracts, reproducible implementations, documented limitations, and close collaboration with research and engineering teams.

Requirements

• Experience leading predictive, forecasting, machine-learning, quantitative, or applied research with a high empirical standard.
• Experience developing original research agendas and predictive systems from messy, heterogeneous data with temporally valid evaluation.
• Strong skills in statistical reasoning, model design, data design, implementation, experiment design, and detailed error analysis.
• Understanding of the strengths and failure modes of language models and their combination with structured data and quantitative methods.
• Experience managing or technically leading strong researchers, giving direct feedback, and developing independent scientific judgment.
• Willingness to work in person five days a week in New York City, with relocation support available.

Nice to have

• Experience in time-series modeling, econometrics, decision science, quantitative social science, recommender systems, risk modeling, causal inference, market prediction, or probabilistic programming.
• Experience with LLM agents, retrieval, tool use, post-training, synthetic environments, model-based reasoning, or inference-time scaling.
• Experience building proprietary datasets, data products, acquisition programs, or outcome-driven learning systems.
• Experience with prospective forecasting, prediction markets, demand modeling, experimentation, or decision-making under uncertainty.
• Experience translating research into production systems with engineering teams.

Culture & Benefits

• Small, in-person team focused on urgency, high ownership, intellectual honesty, and empirical evidence.
• Competitive base salary with equity participation.
• Comprehensive medical, vision, and dental coverage.
• Visa sponsorship and relocation support.
• Research culture that values rigorous evaluation, clear communication of negative results, and direct contribution from managers.