Staff Machine Learning Engineer, Ads Forecasting & Scenarios (AI)

Location: Remote - United States

Base salary: $230,000–$322,000 USD per year, plus potential equity and, depending on the position, commission.

Company

Reddit is a community platform with more than 100,000 active communities and approximately 130 million daily active unique visitors.

What you will do

• Lead forecasting and scenario models for advertising delivery, reach, performance, budgets, bids, audiences, creative performance, and objectives.
• Combine inventory, audience activity, marketplace competition, and response forecasts to estimate achievable campaign outcomes.
• Build generalized models using probabilistic forecasting, multitask learning, transfer learning, hierarchical modeling, and related approaches.
• Evaluate accuracy, calibration, uncertainty, cohort-level performance, and supported scenarios; validate estimates through experiments and mature outcomes.
• Partner with engineering on reliable training, serving, monitoring, and iteration, while leading designs and mentoring engineers.
• Collaborate with Product, Data Science, Ads Delivery, Audience, and Creative teams to improve advertiser planning and recommendations.

Requirements

• Track record of developing and shipping predictive ML systems in advertising, marketplaces, recommendations, search, demand forecasting, or similarly complex domains.
• Strong foundations in statistical learning, probability, and optimization, including modeling large-scale behavioral or transactional data.
• Depth in probabilistic or hierarchical forecasting, calibrated conversion or value prediction, multitask or transfer learning, delayed-feedback or survival modeling, or response modeling.
• Strong evaluation judgment, including temporal validation, calibration, segment-level performance, and assumptions for estimating outcomes under changed conditions.
• Experience with sparse observations, cold start, seasonality, distribution shift, selection bias, or partially observed labels.
• Strong programming and software engineering skills, including building and operating production ML systems.
• Ability to lead ambiguous technical initiatives, make practical tradeoffs, and develop other engineers.

Nice to have

• Experience with demand, supply, inventory, advertising, marketplace, traffic, retail, or capacity forecasting.
• Experience with auction simulation or replay, win-rate and price models, bid or budget response curves, or constrained optimization.
• Experience with counterfactual or off-policy evaluation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, or combining predictive models.
• Experience with reach and audience estimation, overlap estimation, reach/frequency models, sampling correction, or saturation modeling.
• Experience with mixture-of-experts, distributional or quantile prediction, temporal sequence models, or state-space models.

Culture & Benefits

• Remote work for U.S.-based employees with global benefit programs.
• Comprehensive healthcare, income replacement, medical, dental, and vision coverage.
• 401(k) with employer match, flexible vacation, paid volunteer time, and generous paid parental leave.
• Family planning support, gender-affirming care, and mental health and coaching benefits.
• Workspace, professional development, and caregiving support are available through global benefit programs.
• Interviews may be recorded, transcribed, and summarized by AI for select roles; candidates may opt out before scheduled interviews.