Geopolitical & Event Forecasting Expert (AI)

TL;DR

Geopolitical & Event Forecasting Expert (AI): Evaluating AI-generated predictions regarding global political and economic events with an accent on forecast accuracy and quality assessment. Focus on analyzing elections, central bank decisions, and regulatory events using superforecasting methodologies.

Location: Remote (United States)

Company

An ETH and HSG spin-off and YC-backed AI startup specializing in machine learning and computer vision.

What you will do

• Evaluate AI-generated event forecasts by assessing accuracy and quality using a provided rubric.
• Analyze predictions covering elections, central bank decisions, and policy announcements.
• Review technology and regulatory events to refine AI model outputs.
• Work with a specialized team to improve the reliability of real-world event forecasting.

Requirements

• 2-3 years of recent experience in political analysis, macroeconomics, geopolitical risk, or policy research.
• Experience producing or evaluating probabilistic forecasts, such as election modelling or macro scenario analysis.
• Familiarity with prediction markets (Polymarket, Metaculus) or superforecasting methodologies.
• Fluent in English.
• Strong analytical and quantitative skills with precise communication.
• Must be based in the United States.

Culture & Benefits

• Work directly with a YC-backed team on cutting-edge AI evaluation projects.
• Competitive compensation tailored to experience and project scope.
• Flexible freelance arrangement with an estimated scope of 15 hours per week.